Temporally stacked bee forage species distribution modeling for flower abundance mapping.

Predicting spatial distribution of flowering forage availability is critical for guiding migratory beekeeping decisions. Species distribution modelling (SDM) is widely used to predict the geographic distribution or species ranges. Stacked distributions of multiple species (S-SDM) have been used in predicting species richness or assemblages. Here, we present a method for stacking SDMs based on a temporal element, the flowering phenology of melliferous flora species. First, we used presence-only data for thirty key forage species used for honey production in Western Australia, combined with environmental variables for predicting the geographic distribution of species, using MaxEnt software. The output distribution grids were then stacked based on monthly flowering times of each species to develop grids representing the richness of flowering species by grid cell. While designed for modelling flowering forage availability for a migratory beekeeping system, the approach can be used for predicting temporal forage availability for a range of different fauna that rely on melliferous flora. •How to use temporally stacked species distribution modelling for generic distribution of flowering availability using presence-only data.•A procedure for developing flowering richness and availability grids.

Fire reduces eucalypt forest flowering phenology at the landscape-scale.

Plant phenology describes the timing of reproductive events including flowering and fruiting, which for many species are affected by fire disturbance. Understanding phenological responses to fire provides insights into how forest demographics and resources may shift alongside increasing fire frequency and intensity driven by climate change. However, isolating the direct effects of fire on a species' phenology and excluding potential confounders (e.g. climate, soil) has been difficult due to the logistical challenges of monitoring species-specific phenological events across myriad fire and environmental conditions. Here, we use CubeSat-derived crown-scale flowering data to estimate the effects of fire history (time since fire and fire severity over a 15-year time span) on flowering of the eucalypt Corymbia calophylla across a Mediterranean-climate forest (814km2) in southwest Australia. We found that fire reduced the proportion of flowering trees at the landscape-scale, and flowering recovered at a rate of 0.15 % (±0.11% SE) per year. Further, this negative effect was significant due to high crown scorch fires (>20% canopy scorch), yet there was no significant effect from understory burns. Estimates were obtained using a quasi-experimental design which identifies the effect of time since fire and severity on flowering by comparing proportional flowering within target fire perimeters (treatment) and adjacent past fire perimeters (control). Given the majority of fires studied were managed fuel reduction burns, we applied the estimates to hypothetical fire regimes to compare flowering outcomes under more or less frequent prescribed burning. This research demonstrates the landscape-scale effects of burning on a tree species' reproduction, which could broadly impact forest resiliency and biodiversity.

Data representing climate-induced changes in the spatial distribution of key bee forage species for southwest Western Australia.

The dataset includes (i) species occurrence points, and (ii) Species Distribution Model (SDM) outputs under current conditions and a moderate emission (RCP 6.0) climate scenario, for 30 key bee forage species in southwest Western Australia (WA). Occurrence data were obtained from open data sources and through stakeholder engagement processes. SDM outputs were predicted using the Maxent algorithm with the change in species range analysed using QGIS software. The model outputs provide insight into the potential implications of climate change on important bee forage species in southwest WA, including dominant melliferous tree and shrub species. Changes in these species are likely to have repercussions to the ecological and social systems where a facilitatory relationship exists. This dataset is important for informing conservation efforts within the southwest Australian biodiversity hotspot.

Why bees are critical for achieving sustainable development.

Reductions in global bee populations are threatening the pollination benefits to both the planet and people. Whilst the contribution of bee pollination in promoting sustainable development goals through food security and biodiversity is widely acknowledged, a range of other benefits provided by bees has yet to be fully recognised. We explore the contributions of bees towards achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our insights suggest that bees potentially contribute towards 15 of the 17 SDGs and a minimum of 30 SDG targets. We identify common themes in which bees play an essential role, and suggest that improved understanding of bee contributions to sustainable development is crucial for ensuring viable bee systems.